Looking for the New Three Carriages
Looking for the New Three Carriages New infrastructure, new consumption, and new investment are the three carriages under the new normal Topics: Startup, Management.
Weekly Thoughts
Economic development needs three carriages to drive it. Last week, we mentioned that new infrastructure is one of the carriages under the new normal. The other two carriages are new consumption and new investment.
The contradiction between production relations and productive forces, and the contradiction between the superstructure and the economic base have transformed into the contradiction between the people’s growing needs for a better life and unbalanced and inadequate development. In the future, consumption that meets new life needs will be the main driving force for economic development. Which consumer industries have huge development potential in the future? This can be calculated by dividing their industrial indicators by the population base of 1.4 billion. For example, in 2020, the number of cars in the country was 260 million, with an average of 0.18 cars per person. Similar industries include various consumer electronics, medical resources, education resources, etc.
In the past, when we talked about investment, we mainly referred to infrastructure investment and project investment. With the improvement of the rule of law and the storing of wealth among the people, residents’ demand for asset diversification will also drive the development of banks, brokerages, insurance, and trusts.
Institutional investors have become the main force in the market. This round of bull market will not be a comprehensive bull market, but a structural bull market, and new infrastructure, new consumption, and new investment will be the main sectors for the structural bull market rise. Specifically for individual stocks, it is necessary to select stocks with “Davis Double Play” characteristics.
Weekly Events
Biden announced Harris as his running mate. Looking at the US election trend, the probability of Trump losing in November is very high. If Biden is elected at the age of 77, the 55-year-old Harris will become the vice president. After 4 years, when Biden’s term ends, Harris will become a strong competitor for the presidency after Biden.
Weekly Market
Period: 2020810-20200816
The broader market continued to adjust, and the Shanghai Stock Connect began to turn positive.
Hot Industry Concepts
Long and short trends are chaotic, in a consolidation period.
| Market (%) | Index | This Week | 1 Week Ago | 2 Weeks Ago | 3 Weeks Ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSE Composite Index | 3360.1 | 0.18 | 1.33 | 3.54 | -0.54 |
| SZSE Component Index | 13489 | -1.17 | 0.08 | 5.43 | -1.37 |
| ChiNext Index | 2668 | -2.95 | -1.63 | 6.38 | -1.3 |
| Hang Seng Index | 25183 | 2.66 | -0.26 | -0.45 | -1.53 |
| HSCEI | 10266.46 | 2.02 | 1.11 | 0.06 | -1.59 |
| Red Chip Index | 4135.67 | 3.04 | 0.05 | 1.38 | -2.07 |
| Dow Jones | 27931.02 | 1.81 | 3.8 | -0.16 | -0.76 |
| Nasdaq | 11019.30 | 0.08 | 2.47 | 3.69 | -1.33 |
| S&P 500 | 3372.85 | 0.64 | 2.45 | 1.73 | -0.28 |
Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect
| Market (CNY, Billion) | This Week | Previous Week | 2 Weeks Ago | 3 Weeks Ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shanghai Stock Connect | 41.33 | -44.76 | -115.24 | -156.05 |
| Shenzhen Stock Connect | 15.8 | 0.26 | 72.67 | -91.43 |
| Hong Kong Stock Connect | 23.68 | 74.24 | 25.23 | 139.13 |
Positions
| Type | Code | Name | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock | SZ000880 | Weichai Heavy Machinery | Hold |
| Stock | SNSS | SNSS | Hold |
| Fund | F210008 | Golden Eagle Strategy Allocation Mixed | Hold |
| Fund | F163115 | Shenwan Lingxin CSI Military Industry Index | Hold |
| Fund | F260104 | Invesco Great Wall Domestic Demand Growth Mixed | Hold |
| Fund | F000566 | Huatai-PineBridge Innovation Upgrade | Hold |
| Fund | F320022 | Lion Fund Research Selected Stock | Hold |
| Fund | F001692 | Southern National Policy Power Stock | Hold |
| Fund | F163415 | Xingquan Commercial Front-end Fee | Hold |
| Fund | F519674 | Galaxy Innovation Growth Mixed | Hold |
| Infrastructure | F002446 | GF Lixin Flexible Allocation Mixed | Hold |
