Under the Overturned Nest, Can There Be Any Intact Eggs?
Under the Overturned Nest, Can There Be Any Intact Eggs? If the epidemic spreads overseas, foreign trade will be more difficult this year, and consumption and infrastructure will become the twin engines driving the economy. Whether local governments will follow Macau's example in issuing consumption vouchers is worth looking forward to. 5G, public cloud, rural Internet, and logistics backbone networks are expected to become key directions for new infrastructure. Topics: Startup, Management.
Cycle
20200224-20200301
Market
| Market | Index | This Week (%) | 1 Week Ago (%) | 2 Weeks Ago (%) | 3 Weeks Ago (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSE Composite | 2880.3 | -5.24 | 4.2 | 1.43 | |
| SZSE Component | 10980.77 | -5.58 | 6.54 | 2.87 | |
| ChiNext Index | 2071.57 | -6.96 | 7.62 | 2.65 | |
| Hang Seng Index | 26169.93 | -4.32 | -1.82 | 1.5 | |
| HSCEI | 1027.13 | -5.4 | -0.34 | 0.98 | |
| Red Chip Index | 4033.53 | -5.66 | -1.89 | 0.73 | |
| Dow Jones | 25409.36 | -12.36 | -1.46 | 1.02 | |
| Nasdaq | 8567.37 | -10.54 | -1.39 | 2.21 | |
| S&P 500 | 2954.22 | -11.49 | -1.07 | 1.58 |
This week, the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index fell by more than 5%, the ChiNext Index fell by 7%, the Hang Seng Index fell by 4.32%, the Dow Jones fell by 12.36, the Nasdaq fell by 10.54, and the S&P 500 fell by 11.49. In February, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by more than 3%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 2.8%, and the ChiNext Index rose by more than 7%. The net outflow of Northbound funds this week was 29.341 billion yuan, the second highest single-week net outflow in history; the cumulative net inflow of Northbound funds in February was 11.584 billion yuan. US stocks recorded their worst weekly performance since the 2008 financial crisis this week.
Events
Since the novel coronavirus pneumonia first broke out in China in January, it has now spread to the whole world. In the past two days, the number of new cases in other countries in the world has exceeded that in China. More than 80,000 people have been infected globally, distributed in about 40 countries. Outside of China, the epidemic situation in South Korea, Japan, Italy, and Iran is relatively serious.
Buffett released his “Letter to Shareholders 2020”, avoiding the important and dwelling on the trivial, not mentioning that Berkshire Hathaway’s earnings underperformed the S&P 500. He emphasized continuing to buy companies that meet the following three conditions. “First, they must earn good returns on the net tangible capital required in their operation. Second, they must be run by able and honest managers. Finally, they must be available at a sensible price.”
In addition, Buffett also issued a warning: Stock prices may change anything in the future. Sometimes, the stock market plunge may be 50% or even greater. And advised everyone not to borrow money to speculate in stocks.
Position Adjustment
The epidemic in China has been contained, but the resumption rate is only 38%. Coupled with the global spread of the novel coronavirus pneumonia, it will inevitably affect global market sentiment. However, replicating the logic of the A-share market, the global market in the next stage will be keen on mask concepts and remote office concepts. Sold Grandshores Technology and bought APT at a price of 40.61.
Under the influence of the global epidemic, as an infrared temperature measurement manufacturer that has been deeply cultivating overseas markets for a long time, Dali Technology’s overseas orders will definitely increase. Bought Dali Technology at a price of 24.866, which has been observed for 2 weeks.
In February, A-shares were unique, but under the overturned nest, can there be any intact eggs? It is expected to fluctuate downward in the future, and fund positions will be adjusted. Convert Guotai Smart Car to Guotai Golden Dragon Bond C, convert E Fund Emerging Growth to E Fund Pure Bond C, convert E Fund ChiNext ETF to E Fund Longbao Currency A, sell BOCOM Data Economy New Power, and sell Changxin Electronics Quantization Hybrid. Since Guangfa Double Engine Upgrade Hybrid will distribute dividends next week, continue to hold positions and wait for dividends.
Did not win new bonds this week.
| Type | Code | Name | Current Dynamic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock | HK01647 | Grandshores Technology | Cleared |
| Stock | APT | Alpha Pro Tech | Buy |
| Stock | SZ002214 | Dali Technology | Buy |
| Fund | F001790 | Cathay Smart Car | Cleared |
| Fund | F020012 | Guotai Golden Dragon Bond C | Buy |
| Fund | F000404 | E Fund Emerging Growth | Cleared |
| Fund | F110038 | E Fund Pure Bond C | Buy |
| Fund | F005911 | Guangfa Double Engine Upgrade | Hold |
| Fund | F519778 | BOCOM Data Economy New Power | Cleared |
| Fund | F110026 | E Fund ChiNext ETF Feeder A | Cleared |
| Fund | F000789 | E Fund Longbao Currency A | Buy |
| Fund | F519929 | Changxin Electronics Quantization Hybrid | Cleared |
Thoughts
Work resumed this week, but resumption of work does not mean resumption of production. The data reported by the official authorities is only the resumption rate. Except for epidemic prevention supplies companies, it is estimated that the resumption rate of most companies is less than 10%. First, business owners dare not rashly let all employees resume work. The isolation of 66 people in Dangdang is a lesson from the past. Second, the insufficient start of upstream and downstream, and it is not necessary for the company to produce at full capacity. With the easing of the epidemic in the mainland, local governments will use recruitment subsidies, door-to-door services, and other forms to coerce and lure companies to resume work.
If the epidemic spreads overseas, foreign trade will be more difficult this year, and consumption and infrastructure will become the twin engines driving the economy. Whether local governments will follow Macau’s example in issuing consumption vouchers is worth looking forward to. 5G, public cloud, rural Internet, and logistics backbone networks are expected to become key directions for new infrastructure.
