As soon as the Spring Festival Gala is broadcast, the dinner table is full of awkward atmosphere

Weekly Reflection

On February 5, the US House of Representatives approved a budget resolution, enabling Democrats to push Biden’s $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief plan to be passed in Congress in the coming weeks without Republican support. The probability of the bill being passed is increasing. The current US stock market has fallen to a new high, largely reflecting the theme of Biden’s stimulus plan. By early March, when the policy is officially implemented, it is worth paying attention to whether the market reaction of “sell after the news is confirmed” will end the market’s continued rise.

The stimulus policy is intended to allow the US job market to recover quickly, but the US government needs to continue to issue treasury bonds to honor this policy, and US bond interest rates may continue to rise. In addition, in order to repay debts, the US government will also have to raise corporate taxes. If it triggers inflation, it may lead to an epic stock market crash. It is cold at the top, and we must be vigilant about this risk.

Compared with the large-scale economic stimulus bills in European and American countries, domestic economic policies are much milder. Although it was emphasized that the policy “will not take a sharp turn” in the early stage, after the impact of the epidemic was gradually eliminated and the economy returned to normal, monetary policy began to tighten. This is more like precise irrigation of monetary policy. Just as mentioned in the central bank’s key work in 2021, “prudent monetary policy should be flexible, precise, reasonable and appropriate”.

After the Trump administration fought a trade war and the epidemic, the entire electronics industry is suffering from a shortage of components. Not only consumer electronics using cutting-edge technology are affected, but automotive chips using old and cheap processes are also severely affected.

In 2018, at the beginning of the trade war, Chinese people kept telling Americans that the trade war is a lose-lose strategy that kills a thousand enemies and destroys eight hundred of oneself. Now the bad consequences have appeared, and US chips have suffered a backlash. Although the White House said it is trying every means to find a solution to the problem with its allies, without Chinese semiconductor companies, the entire supply chain may be difficult to recover, and eventually it will return to the right path of cooperation. After China suffered from being choked, learned from the pain, and then made chips vigorously, I am afraid that the illusion of relying on the United States has been completely wiped out, and the road to making chips has become more determined. The entire chip industry chain will continue to benefit.

Events of the Week

The Spring Festival of the Year of the Ox is coming, and the worst Spring Festival Gala in history opens on time. The sketches are awkward, the cross talks are awkward, and the songs are awkward. The most embarrassing thing is the infinite preaching. Originally, the family sat together happily, watching the Spring Festival Gala and eating New Year’s Eve dinner. As a result, the Spring Festival Gala asked the children in front of the TV to say thank you to their parents, asked the husband and wife to say I love you wife (husband), and asked the daughter-in-law to say mom, you worked hard to the mother-in-law. As soon as the Spring Festival Gala was broadcast, the dinner table was full of awkward atmosphere.

Market of the Week

Period: 2021-02-07 ——— 2021-02-13

Review 4 weeks ago: A-share three major indices were basically flat with last week. Consumption and other sectors clustered by funds in the early stage were sluggish, and public funds began to flow to semiconductors. Wind industry sectors top 3 gainers were motorcycles, telecommunications, banks; top 3 losers were agriculture, precious metals, aerospace. Wind concept sectors top 3 gainers were semiconductors, transportation, Yangtze River Storage concept; top 4 losers were yellow wine, beer, aquatic products, liquor.

Review 3 weeks ago: ChiNext Index surged 8.68% in a week, and the three major indices showed an overall upward trend this month. Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect showed net inflow for four consecutive weeks, and it can be concluded that there is incremental capital flowing into the stock market. Wind industry sectors top 3 gainers were petrochemicals, chemical fibers, power generation equipment; top 3 losers were telecommunications, insurance, beverages. Wind concept sectors top 3 gainers were rare earth, CRO, medical services; top 3 losers were insurance, mining services, cement index.

Review 2 weeks ago: All major global indices fell this week. The main reason for A-shares is that the central bank started a “mini” reverse repurchase and withdrew funds, and market liquidity suddenly appeared tight. US stocks are mainly due to WSB chasing and beating Wall Street. For the first time in 4 weeks, Stock Connect showed net outflow, and Hong Kong Stock Connect net inflow this month exceeded 250 billion RMB. Wind industry sectors top 3 gainers were airports, catering and tourism, and alcohol; top 3 losers were motorcycles, shipping, and aerospace. Wind concept sectors top 3 gainers were air transportation, HNA series, and rare earth; top 3 losers were aero engines, third-generation semiconductors, and aviation equipment.

Review 1 week ago: All global indices rose this week, gains: US > Hong Kong > China, Stock Connect resumed net inflow, and Hong Kong Stock Connect continued large net inflow. Wind industry sectors top 3 gainers were catering and tourism, banking, and office supplies; top 3 losers were airports, shipping, and leisure goods. Wind concept sectors top 3 gainers were medical, CRO, mining services, top 3 losers were ETC, HNA series, and semiconductors, and the local Chinese New Year effect was obvious.

Review this week: All global indices rose this week, gains: A-shares > H-shares > US stocks, Stock Connect showed net inflow for two consecutive weeks, and Hong Kong Stock Connect continued large net inflow. Wind industry sectors top 3 gainers were alcohol, catering and daily chemicals; top 3 losers were shipping, Internet and gas. Wind concept sectors top 3 gainers were medical beauty, PTA and vaccines, top 3 losers were online games, rare earth permanent magnets, lithium battery electrolytes. The local Chinese New Year effect is still obvious. It is expected that chips and chemicals will continue to boom after the year, and vaccines and testing will go lower.

Market (%)	Index	This Week	1 Week Ago	2 Weeks Ago	3 Weeks Ago
Shanghai Composite	3655.09	3.92	0.38	-0.63	1.13
Shenzhen Component	15962.25	4.79	1.25	-0.61	0.7
ChiNext Index	3413.81	5.89	2.07	-1.04	8.68
Hang Seng Index	30173.57	3.64	3.55	-0.94	3.06
HSCEI	-	3.15	1.48	-1.22	0.78
Hang Seng HK Chinese Enterprises	4031.30	1.24	2.40	-1.18	0.93
Dow Jones	31458.40	1	3.89	-2.03	0.02
Nasdaq	14095.47	1.73	6.01	-2.00	3.28
S&P 500	3934.83	1.24	4.65	-1.93	1.21

Market (CNY, Billion)	This Week	Previous Week	2 Weeks Ago	3 Weeks Ago
Shanghai Connect	16.84	74.97	-56.95	11.45
Shenzhen Connect	70.89	74.97	-56.95	11.45
Hong Kong Connect	96.56	485.13	664.22	798.46

Positions

A-shares: Zhongjia Bochuang cleared the risk of greater losses after a one-time provision for goodwill impairment in 2020. Although the three businesses of 5G messaging, base station maintenance, and credit card collection were affected by the epidemic in 2020, they are developing overall. According to its description in the private placement application, after April 2021, the three major operators will restart the base station operation bidding, and the bottom performance is guaranteed. During the Spring Festival, whether operators and merchants will test 5G messaging on a large scale is worth paying attention to. I believe the company will have a good performance under the leadership of Wu Ying, a big shot in the telecommunications industry.

Buy Guangqi Technology, a core technology company of new materials. I once heard a sharing by Dr. Liu Ruopeng in early 2016. At that time, he and his team were still bent on civilian use, but the road to commercialization was not smooth. Now with the support of large military orders, the focus is on military use, and performance is guaranteed.

Buy Polyfluorodof, a leader in lithium hexafluorophosphate raw materials, and prepare to hold it for a long time. Looked carefully, gave up.

Buy the oversold Weichai Heavy Machinery. Starting from summer, the temperature rises, the epidemic is eliminated, the demand for domestic seafood gradually increases, and the prosperity of ocean fishing rebounds. Coupled with the post-trade war period, the prosperity of global shipping rebounds, and Weichai Heavy Machinery’s performance recovery is expected. Looked carefully, gave up.

Hong Kong and US: It is estimated that fintech will take a long time to recover, and clear positions at a loss. Buy Luokung Technology, which is sanctioned by the US, has established cooperation with multiple car companies, and has been unable to pay wages for 5 consecutive months.

Funds: Try the person investment + track investment mode. Person Investment Mode:

Like Xie Zhiyu’s (Xingquan Herun Graded) capability boundary circle view.

Liu Yanchun is a stability player (Invesco Great Wall Domestic Demand Growth Mixed).

Zhou Haidong (Huashang Trend Flexible) is a big open and close player, betting heavily on optimistic industries, such as mining in the fourth quarter.

Liu Bin (Xinhua Xin Dongli Flexible Allocation Mixed) is a PhD in materials science. All technology disputes, mapped to the industry, are ultimately material disputes.

Track Investment Mode:

Optimistic about medical (GF Medical Health A) in 2021.

Technology (E Fund Information Industry Selected Stocks).

Military Industry (E Fund National Defense Military Industry Mixed).

High-quality technology companies (Huaxia New Era Mixed).

Code	Name	Current Period Dynamics
SZ000889	Zhongjia Bochuang	Flat
SZ.002407	Polyfluorodof	Clear
SZ000880	Weichai Heavy Machinery	Clear
SZ002625	Guangqi Technology	Flat
LKCO	Luokung Technology	Flat
F260104	Invesco Great Wall Domestic Demand Growth Mixed	Flat
F163406	Xingquan Herun Graded	Flat
F166301	Huashang Trend Flexible	Flat
F002083	Xinhua Xin Dongli Flexible Allocation Mixed	Flat
F004851	GF Medical Health A	Flat
F010013	E Fund Information Industry Selected Stocks	Flat
F005534	Huaxia New Era Mixed	Flat
F001475	E Fund National Defense Military Industry Mixed	Flat