Corporate Analyst

iDiMi-No harm without comparison, an epidemic punctured all the paper tigers of the West, a trade war made people see the cruelty of competition between countries

Weekly Reflections

The last day of 2020 was spent in peace and tranquility. Thinking back to the beginning of the year when the epidemic was raging, everything was full of uncertainty. Under panic, I cleared my positions at the lowest point. Then I researched the development laws of the 2003 epidemic, and after comparing it with this epidemic, [I came to the conclusion that there is no need to panic](https:// .xyz/covid-19/), and slowly increased my positions again, operating with full positions. When the domestic epidemic ended, and I thought this catastrophe had passed, who knew that all capitalism is a paper tiger. The epidemic broke out overseas, and it was wave after wave, with no end in sight. Stepping into 2021, the overseas epidemic is still constantly breaking records. On January 1, 2021, the daily number of new deaths from the new crown overseas was still breaking records, with more than 18,000 deaths in a single day. The domestic situation is not completely peaceful either, with more than a thousand confirmed cases on record daily, and there are still sporadic victims every day. Now the treatment experience and level are far beyond the same period last year, yet people are still dying, which shows the harm of the new crown virus.

After experiencing the epidemic, the wave of corporate bankruptcies, floods, and the Sino-US trade war, people have become calmer and calmer, and everyone believes that nothing worse will happen. However, black swans and gray rhinos always exist, maybe they will never appear, maybe they will appear in the next moment, so it is better to be cautious in everything.

No harm without comparison, an epidemic punctured all the paper tigers of the West, a trade war made people see the cruelty of competition between countries. Fortunately, we stood on the right side. Specifically in the stock market, the ChiNext has topped the world for three consecutive years. In an automatically ascending elevator like China, even those like me who sold at a loss at a low level, presumably made a profit throughout the year. [In dialectical learning, we summarized the investment insights of masters. Now it seems that winning the ovarian lottery is already an established fact. As for betting on the country’s fortune, it can be summarized by a sentence that is most deeply rooted in people’s hearts, spoken by Luo Zhenyu, a pseudo-Buffett quote: No one can succeed by shorting their own motherland. The closest to this pseudo-Buffett value-style quote is another factual rhetorical question from Buffett: who has ever benefited during the past 238 years by betting against America? Simply put, going long on China is betting right on the country’s fortune. And to compete with people in the same elevator, the only thing to do is to be like Buffett “When investing, we view ourselves as business analysts - not as market analysts, not as macroeconomic analysts, and not even as security analysts”, only in this way can we discover one wet and slippery snow track after another, dare to concentrate holdings, and place heavy bets.

Winning the ovarian lottery, betting right on the country’s fortune, discovering one wet and slippery snow track after another, concentrating holdings, falling in love rather than getting married, placing heavy bets.

Weekly Events

On December 30, 2020, the leaders of China and the EU jointly announced the completion of the China-EU investment agreement negotiations as scheduled. The China-EU Investment Agreement is another high-level cross-regional economic agreement welcomed by China following the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) on November 15, 2020. In 2020, China achieved fruitful results in expanding its “circle of friends”. Following the three major free trade zones, another influential free trade agreement was completed.

Currently, there are three major free trade zones in the world:

North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA): Established by the United States, Canada, and Mexico on August 12, 1992.
European Union (EU): Established by Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Luxembourg on November 1, 1993, and now has 27 member states.
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP): Initiated by the ten member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), with the participation of China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand, five countries that have free trade agreements with ASEAN, and established on November 15, 2020.
China-EU Bilateral Investment Agreement (BIT): Signed by China and the EU, aiming to build an institutional arrangement for China-EU bilateral investment. The core content of the agreement includes four aspects (1) ensuring mutual investment protection, respecting intellectual property rights, and ensuring subsidy transparency; (2) improving market access conditions for both sides; (3) ensuring a clear, fair, and transparent investment environment and regulatory procedures; (4) improving labor standards and supporting sustainable development.

Weekly Market

Period: 2020-12-28 ——— 2021-01-03

Last Week Review: The three major indices all rose, ending a two-day decline, and Stock Connect continued to flow in. It is expected that under the effect of inertia, the phased rise will continue next week. Although the liquor sector was still among the top gainers this week, on the last trading day, all three yellow wine stocks fell to the limit, bicycles and titanium dioxide were among the top gainers, while lithium batteries and CAR-T were among the top losers. Sector rotation is still very obvious, and patience in holding stocks is more important than blindly chasing highs and selling lows.

This Week Summary: The three major indices all rose, rising for two consecutive days; Stock Connect continued to flow in for three weeks; Wind industry sectors top three gainers were shipping, precious metals, papermaking, top three losers were office supplies, education, motorcycles; Wind concept sectors top three gainers were financial participation, Chengdu-Chongqing Special Zone, smart grid, top three losers were lithium batteries, CAR-T, stock trading software.

Market (%)	Index	This Week	1 Week Ago	2 Weeks Ago	3 Weeks Ago
Shanghai Composite	3473.07	3.27	0.99	-0.29	-0.77
Shenzhen Component	14470.68	3.99	0.73	-0.26	-1.28
ChiNext Index	2966.26	5.16	0.71	-0.18	-1.13
Hang Seng Index	3799.56	3.37	0.16	-0.67	0.36
HSCEI	-	-0.43	1.24	0.67	0.14
Hang Seng HK Chinese Enterprises	3799.56	3.48	1.03	0.02	0.39
Dow Jones	30606.48	1.58	0.23	-0.41	0.16
Nasdaq	12888.28	0.92	0.26	-0.07	-0.23
S&P 500	3756.07	1.79	0.35	-0.35	-0.13

Market (CNY, Billion)	This Week	Previous Week	2 Weeks Ago	3 Weeks Ago
Shanghai Connect	27.26	48.44	79.13	73.27
Shenzhen Connect	108.56	37.7	5.71	-3.67
Hong Kong Connect	229.45	62.00	9.77	63.01

Positions

Code	Name	Current Period Dynamic
SZ000889	Zhongjia Bochuang	Flat
LU	Lufax	Flat
F260104	Invesco Great Wall Domestic Demand Growth Mixed	Increase
F001668	Hwabao Global Internet Mixed	Increase
F163406	Xingquan Herun Graded	Increase
F008238	Zhongtai CSI 300 Enhanced A	Increase
F166301	Huashang Trend Flexible	Increase
F004997	GF High-End Manufacturing	Increase
F005449	Huaxia Industry Leader Mixed	New