Silent Lurking
Weekly Market
Cycle: 20200309-20200315
| Market | Index | This Week (%) | 1 Week Ago (%) | 2 Weeks Ago (%) | 3 Weeks Ago (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSE Composite | 2887.43 | -4.85 | 5.35 | -5.24 | 4.2 |
| SZSE Component | 10831.13 | -6.49 | 5.48 | -5.58 | 6.54 |
| ChiNext Index | 2030.58 | -7.4 | 5.86 | -6.96 | 7.62 |
| Hang Seng Index | 24032.91 | -8.08 | 0.06 | -4.32 | -1.82 |
| HSCEI | 941.3 | -9.11 | 0.83 | -5.4 | -0.34 |
| Red Chip Index | 3648.46 | -11.21 | 1.87 | -5.66 | -1.89 |
| Dow Jones | 23185.62 | -10.36 | 1.79 | -12.36 | -1.46 |
| Nasdaq | 7874.88 | -8.17 | 0.1 | -10.54 | -1.39 |
| S&P 500 | 2711.02 | -8.79 | 0.61 | -11.49 | -1.07 |
The Shanghai Composite Index fell by more than 5%; the Shenzhen Component Index fell by more than 6%; the ChiNext Index fell by more than 7%. The Hang Seng Index fell by more than 8%, the HSCEI fell by more than 9%, and the Red Chip Index fell by more than 11%. The Dow Jones fell by more than 10%, the Nasdaq fell by more than 8%, and the S&P 500 fell by more than 9%.
Events
On March 10, high-level officials inspected the eye of the epidemic storm, sending a signal that the epidemic in the mainland is about to pass, and the focus of work will shift from grasping the epidemic with one hand and the economy with the other to grasping the economy with both hands. The work tasks formulated by the Central Economic Conference last year will be gradually implemented. From the perspective of work deployment in the first quarter, high-quality development is still the main direction of investment throughout the year.
On Friday, at the Guangdong epidemic prevention press conference, Zhong Nanshan said that many imported cases from abroad are asymptomatic and should be prevented from becoming new epidemic sources. Global flow of people and logistics will be further frustrated, aviation and tourism industries will become more difficult, and online communication and remote office needs will further increase.
Since the establishment of the circuit breaker mechanism for US stocks in 1988, it has happened three times so far. The first time was the Asian financial crisis in 1997, and the second and third times occurred on Tuesday and Thursday of this week respectively. US stocks have fully entered a technical bear market. In addition, driven by US stocks, the stock markets of Canada, Brazil, Mexico, Singapore, South Korea, Australia, and Japan also triggered circuit breakers and entered technical bear markets. This time, the big A-shares did not follow the US stocks, because we have always been in a bear market…
Position Adjustment
This week, Dali Technology triggered the 10% stop loss and was passively cleared. Other stock funds have not changed.
More convertible bonds were issued this week, especially on March 12, when six bonds were issued at once, but luck was bad and I didn’t win a single one.
| Type | Code | Name | Current Dynamic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock | APT | Alpha Pro Tech | Hold |
| Stock | SZ002214 | Dali Technology | Cleared |
| Fund | F210008 | Golden Eagle Strategy Allocation Hybrid | Hold |
| Fund | F519674 | Galaxy Innovation Hybrid | Hold |
| Fund | F005311 | Wanjia Economic New Momentum Hybrid A | Hold |
| Fund | F020003 | Guotai Golden Dragon Industry Selection | Hold |
| Fund | F005911 | Guangfa Double Engine Upgrade Hybrid | Hold |
| Fund | F00404 | E Fund Emerging Growth | Hold |
| Fund | F519929 | Changxin Electronics Quantization Hybrid | Hold |
Thoughts
When the epidemic causes panic, people tend to obtain more information to try to suppress panic, but obtaining information and deeply understanding information and making correct judgments are two different things. For example, seeing the news picture below about new infrastructure (infrastructure construction exerting force on the technology end), for most people, they can understand that new infrastructure involves seven major fields: 5G infrastructure, UHV, intercity rail transit, new energy vehicle charging piles, big data centers, artificial intelligence, and industrial Internet. However, if everyone is asked to choose only one field to buy in full and do short-term trading, I am afraid it will be a chaotic war among seven countries. But if we do a simple analysis, we can conclude: except for UHV and intercity rail transit, the other 5 are all themes that have been hyped in the early stage and prices are at normal points. In addition, there are not many targets regarding intercity rail transit in the market. Only UHV is in the price mismatch stage and is worth buying.
In addition, due to the lack of basic information screening and judgment ability, trading based on information itself will make traders anxious, and even forget some basic investment principles, but these principles are very important for selecting and holding targets. There are thousands of investment principles, but the ones to always remember are nothing more than the three basic principles given in Buffett’s 2020 letter to shareholders: companies with good future cash flow, trustworthy management, and an appropriate price.
The first two points are easy to understand, but what is an appropriate price? Historical average price? Industry average PE, neither. The price that deviates from value is. Qualified investors should buy heavily when the market is inefficient in the short term and causes price deviations. When prices return to normal, quickly clear positions and leave. Usually, be like a crocodile, silently lurking underwater, attack quickly when prey appears, and then wait quietly again.
Published at: Jan 18, 2020 · Modified at: Dec 2, 2025
