Investing Requires Strategic Resolve
Trade tensions between China and the United States show no sign of easing. Add the U.S.–Iran standoff, tit-for-tat moves between Japan and South Korea, and unrest in Hong Kong, and the global landscape looks stormy. Equity markets swing like roller coasters, and many friends panic, selling low and buying high, ending up with a higher cost basis. They want to exit, yet feel unwilling. How can we stay steady right now?
First, study the macro backdrop. Take the trade war: it has dragged on since January 2018. When President Trump hiked tariffs on US$200 billion of Chinese imports from 10% to 25% (effective May 11, 2019), the Shanghai Composite plunged 5.58% that day, as if the economy would collapse the moment negotiations soured. Yet on June 29, the Osaka G20 meeting reopened talks and halted new tariffs; by August 1 the U.S. announced a 10% tariff on the remaining US$300 billion of Chinese goods, and the Shanghai Composite only fell 1.41%. Yesterday, U.S. indices tumbled sharply while the three big A-share indices all closed green. Investors have already steeled themselves for a protracted fight; once the market is fully braced for pain, a turning point is near.
Second, focus on businesses rather than the market. People love to blame weak returns on “macro headwinds” or “poor market sentiment.” But what drives returns—volatile market swings, index moves, or the actual growth of the underlying businesses? From a value-investing perspective, it is always the company. Warren Buffett bought Coca-Cola in 1988 and has never sold, earning more than US$18 billion. Over those 30-plus years, the world economy went through countless cycles. Buffett’s conviction was not about global macro but about Coca-Cola’s board and executives. Great entrepreneurs shine in tough environments, proving their worth.
Finally, investors themselves must practice strategic resolve. Politicians and corporate leaders who beat rivals share this trait: the ability to understand long-term patterns, stay calm, and make decisions that align with those patterns. Confucius said, “Only those who know where to stop can be firm; only the firm can be tranquil; only the tranquil can be secure; only the secure can deliberate; only those who deliberate can attain.” With resolve, we stay unruffled, think holistically, and respond wisely. Anyone hoping to outperform the market must build the same strategic fortitude.
Cānghǎi yīshēng xiào, tāotāo liǎng’àn cháo
Fúchén suí làng, zhǐ jì jīnzhāo
Cāngtiān xiào, fēnfēn shìshàng cháo
Shuí fù shuí shèngchū, tiān zhīxiǎo
Jiāngshān xiào, yānyǔ yáo
Tāolàng táo jìn hóngchén súshì jǐ duō jiāo
Qīngfēng xiào, jìng ruò jìliáo
Háoqíng hái shèng le yī jīn wǎnzhào
Cāngshēng xiào, bú zài jìliáo
Háoqíng réng zài chīchī xiàoxiào
La…
Published at: Aug 15, 2019 · Modified at: Nov 20, 2025
